PC Gaming is failing. We can use anecdotal evidence from both market-level and user-level to conclude so. Statistics are all around the place. Sales of entertainment software experienced a robust gain in 2008 and in December holiday period, while console gaming compensating for the loss in PC gaming software. Today, I met a very knowledgeable game developer in Palo Alto and discussed the future of PC gaming. Once, PC Games offered material competitive edges compared to consoles: Keyboard and mouse, online updates, better (and always upgradable) graphics and performance, strong network effect, robust online gaming experience.

Since then, consoles matched, and then exceeded PCs offering in almost all fronts. Today, they have better graphics with same performance at far more affordable price tags compared to a high-end PC spec and strong online connectivity with a unified online experience not for each game alone (like in the case of PC games) but for each profile across games. In terms of network effect, there are now enough consoles out there to satisfy the critical threshold for a society that continuously play games online. In fact, the only weapons of PC gaming remaining strong is the use of keyboard and mouse. That is why first-person shooters, real-time strategy games and MMOs still triumph in PC platform. But it is under challenge. We just heard from Infinity Ward, the studio that developed 2008 Game of the Year Call of Duty 4, that game servers recorded 10+ million Xbox and 4+ million PS3 unique players having played the game since release. Halo is a huge-selling franchise in Xbox. So FPS castle is already down. MMOs have largely been PC-exclusive, but consoles started challenging it with initiatives like Playstation Home.

It seems like the only remaining castle is real-time strategy games, where it is 100% required to use mouse and keyboard combinations extensively. I am really curious to see how developers will migrate those players into consoles and when will PC games officially raise the white flag. Of course, there is a huge area of browser-based casual games that everyone (especially employees at their work computers) plays frequently. But I see the installing, paid-for PC games and the browser-based games completely independent. In that sense, I am trying to forecast the date after which no major studios will be putting the effort to develop a title for PC platform. My guess, with such strong adoption of console gaming, is less that 5 years.